Tracking excess of maternal deaths associated with COVID-19 in Brazil: a nationwide analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic brought a new challenge to maternal mortality in Brazil. Throughout 2020, Brazil registered 549 maternal deaths, mainly in second and third-trimester pregnant women. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess maternal deaths in Brazil caused directly and indirectly by Covid-19 in the year 2020. In addition, we sought to identify clinical, social and health care factors associated with the direct maternal deaths caused by Covid-19. METHODS: We performed nationwide analyses based on data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) for general and maternal deaths and the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVEP-Influenza) for estimates of female and maternal deaths due to COVID-19. Two distinct techniques were adopted. First, we describe maternal deaths directly caused by covid-19 and compare them with the historical series of deaths from covid-19 among women of childbearing age (15 to 49 years). Next, we estimated the total excess maternal mortality. Then, we calculated odds ratios for symptoms, comorbidities, social determination proxies and hospital care aspects between COVID-19 maternal deaths and deaths of women of childbearing age who were not pregnant or no maternal deaths. We chose women of childbearing age (15 to 49 years) as a reference because sex and age introduce differentials in the risk of COVID-19 death. RESULTS: Most maternal deaths occurred during pregnancy compared to postpartum deaths month by month in 2020 (µ = 59.8%, SD = 14.3%). The excess maternal mortality in 2020 in Brazil was 1.40 (95% CI 1.35-1.46). Even considering excess mortality due to COVID-19 for the childbearing age female population (MMR 1.14; 95% CI 1.13-1.15), maternal mortality exceeded the expected number. The odds of being a black woman, living in a rural area and being hospitalized outside the residence municipality among maternal deaths were 44, 61 and 28% higher than the control group. Odds of hospitalization (OR 4.37; 95% CI 3.39-5.37), ICU admission (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.50-1.98) and invasive ventilatory support use (OR 1.64; CI 95% 1.42-1.86) among maternal deaths were higher than in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: There was excess maternal mortality in 2020 in Brazil. Even with adjustment for the expected excess mortality from Covid-19 in women of childbearing age, the number of maternal deaths exceeds expectations, suggesting that there were deaths among pregnant and postpartum women indirectly caused by the pandemic, compromising access to prenatal care., adequate childbirth and puerperium.

Excess mortality according to group of causes in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate excess mortality by cause of death in Brazil and states in 2020. METHODS: We estimated the expected number of deaths considering a linear trend analysis with the number of deaths between 2015 and 2019 for each group of causes and each federative unit. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals for each SMR assuming a Poisson distribution. We performed the analyses in the R program, version 4.1.3. RESULTS: We observed a 19% excess in deaths in 2020 (SMR=1.19; 95%CI=1.18-1.20). The Infectious and Parasitic Diseases group stood out among the defined causes (SMR=4.80; 95%CI 4.78-4.82). The ill-defined causes showed great magnitude in this period (SMR=6.08; 95%CI 6.06-6.10). Some groups had lower-than-expected deaths: respiratory diseases (10% lower than expected) and external causes (4% lower than expected). In addition to the global analysis of the country, we identified significant heterogeneity among the federative units. States with the highest SMR are concentrated in the northern region, and those with the lowest SMR are concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions. CONCLUSION: Excess mortality occurs during the COVID-19 pandemic. This excess results not only from COVID-19 itself, but also from the social response and the management of the health system in responding to a myriad of causes that already had a trend pattern before it.

How to overcome the stagnation of the first dose vaccine coverage curve against coronavirus disease 2019 in Brazil?

BACKGROUND: A large percentage of the population has not yet started vaccination, for which the increase in coverage is almost null. METHODS: We used segmented regression analysis to estimate trends in the first dose coverage curve. RESULTS: There has been a slowdown in the application of the first doses in Brazil since epidemiological week 36 (average percent change [APC] 0.83%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.91%), with a trend close to stagnation. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to develop strategies to increase access to vaccination posts. Furthermore, it is recommended to expand vaccination to children, thereby increasing the eligible population.

Spatial analysis of the origin-destination flow of admissions for severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by COVID-19 in the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro. / Análise espacial do fluxo origem-destino das internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro.

This study analyzed the inter-municipality flow of hospital admissions due to severe acute respiratory syndrome by COVID-19 in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro. We identified 12,676 inter-municipality hospitalizations for COVID-19 involving the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. In total, 11,288 (89.0%) admissions were of residents of the Metropolitan Region (RM), 87% residents in other municipalities of the same region and admitted to hospitals from the state capital, and 13% residents of the capital admitted to hospitals from other municipalities in the RM. There was a negative correlation when it comes to the distance between cities and the origin-destination flow (r=0.62, p<0.001). The RM of the capital Rio de Janeiro imports more admissions for SARS by COVID-19 than it exports. This study highlights the importance of care networks intended for more severe cases that mainly require specialized care.

Este estudo analisou o fluxo intermunicipal das internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro. Foram identificadas 12.676 internações intermunicipais por COVID-19 envolvendo o município do Rio de Janeiro. Dessas, 11.288 (89,0%) eram de residentes na região metropolitana, 87% de residentes em outros municípios da mesma região e internados na capital do estado, e 13% eram residentes da capital internados em outros municípios da região. Há correlação negativa entre a distância dos municípios e o fluxo origem-destino (r=0,62, p<0,001). O município do Rio de Janeiro importa mais internações por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19 do que exporta. Este estudo evidenciou a importância das redes de atendimento para casos mais graves, os quais necessitem, principalmente, de atenção especializada.

Effect of physical distancing on Covid-19 incidence in Brazil: does the strictness of mandatory rules matter?

This study aims to examine the association between physical distancing measures and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence among Brazilian states. We divided the methodology was divided into three steps. In the first step, we used nationwide global positioning system daily data to estimate country and state-level physical distancing and examined the association with COVID-19 incidence through a Generalized Additive Model. Secondly, using National Household Sample Survey COVID19 data, a cluster analysis categorized the Brazilian states into different categories of physical distancing policies promoting adoption and political inclination of their governments. Finally, through a Poisson Regression Model, we examined the association of state physical distancing with variables related to the socio-economic situation, test coverage and early adoption of policies promoting physical distancing of each state. Physical distancing effects on reduction of COVID-19 spread are heterogeneous among states. Estimation of incidence rate ratio (IRR) suggests that in a scenario of 100% of social isolation incidence of COVID-19 will have reached approximately only 2.6% of the magnitude compared to when there is no social isolation for Brazil [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8-8.3]. Only a 10% increase in Social Isolation Index in the country could have reflected in a 30.5% decrease in number of cases in 14 days. Adoption of physical distancing was associated with test coverage (IRR 0.976, 95% CI 0.973-0.979), home office (IRR 1.042, 95% CI 1.039-1.046), informal work proportion (IRR 0.961, 95% CI 0.958-0.965), political spectrum (IRR 0.961, 95% CI 0.958-0.965) and early moment of restrictive politics implementation (IRR 1.017, 95% CI 1.013-1.021). Physical distancing measures play a crucial role in mitigating the pandemic's spread. These analyses are crucial to support government decisions and improve the community's adherence to preventive measures.

Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals.

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS: We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS: All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS: Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

Estratificación de riesgo para la predicción de propagación y gravedad por Covid-19 en unidades de la Federación Brasileña Risk stratification for prediction of spread and severity by Covid-19 in Brazilian federation units

Abstract Objectives: To perform risk stratification for dissemination and mortality by COVID-19 from Brazilian federal units (FU), based on characteristics identified as risk situations. Methods: Social, demographic and health indicators were selected and underwent principal components analysis. Then, it was possible to divide the FUs by cluster analysis. Based on the factor load of the components created, a final score for the UF was obtained and they were then stratified with regard to the risk of dissemination and mortality by COVID-19. Findings: Components created refer to assistance, health (including risk factors), demographic and social conditions. These components allowed for the final classification of the 27 FU, with a difference in order with regard to the potential for dissemination and mortality. Conclusions: We believe risk stratification may be a measure to support public health, defining areas with the greatest potential for damage and on that basis, allow for the creation of priority intervention strategies.